However it is also a good idea to have a local book that you
can place wagers with for the express purpose of wagering against local teams,
remember that local teams are also generally popular teams to wager on for the
local run of the mill gamblers in your area, meaning that you must usually lay
a higher point spread number if wagering on a local team through a local book,
thus the rule of thumb is to use off shore books when wagering ON local teams
but use local books when wagering AGAINST local teams.
If you want to defeat the point spread you have to remain
ahead of the proverbial curve, this means that you must out-work other gamblers
with regard to having and acting on information before they do, I personally do
a ton of off-season work and I recommend that you do the same, for example,
it's a good idea to go over each teams schedule as soon as it is released for
the upcoming season and finding potential bad spots for each team.
By bad spots in the schedule I mean taking note of the
potential pitfalls or scheduling quirks that might affect a teams performance,
for example, when a team is playing on the road for a third straight week, or
when a team has played two or three straight divisional games and are in line
to play a non conference team next, or if a team is playing on a short week
because they just played on Monday night or if a team has been bouncing back
and forth from the east coast to the west coast or visa versa.
Know in advance to the start of the new season by studying
the schedule if a team is revenge minded against another team for an
embarrassing loss or for knocking them out of the playoffs the previous year,
try to study and concentrate on historical data from past divisional match ups,
the reason is because divisional teams face each other at least twice yearly
which means that often you can find a team that for one reason or another
continues to dominate another.
Know in advance to the start of the new season what players
a team lost to free agency or trades and what players they added via the draft
and/or free agency and don't forget to consider any coaching changes, a
complete turnover in coaching staffs is a hard thing to overcome and often
means that a team will struggle in the early going of a new season because that
team is still trying to learn a new system.
The astute gambler will then take all of the information he
or she has gathered during the off season and will prior to the start of the
new season make up a set of power ratings which are then updated on a weekly
basis once the regular season starts, a smart sports gambler will have a set
personal schedule that they adhere to once the season is under way, keeping in
mind that your off season work has already pinpointed potential scheduling
problems and you have a set of power ratings in place, you can now use this
information to better evaluate the opening Monday morning lines for the next
week.
Monday morning is also a good time to check the injury
reports of each team as well as advance weather reports for the upcoming
weekend's slate of games, as the week progresses you want to continue to
monitor the posted point spread as well as the latest injury and weather
reports, if you have already isolated a contest that has perceived value to you
.
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